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Policy Brief — August 2026

“Godzilla” El Niño on Its Way?
Implications for Southern Africa

Many of the top weather forecasting agencies are predicting an extremely strong El Niño event in the latter part of 2026 and continuing into 2027 — a Godzilla El Niño, with severe impacts on rainfall and temperature. Across Southern Africa, temperatures are predicted to be higher than normal in the early growing season (October through to January). For Zimbabwe, most of the country is expected to be below-average in rainfall. Flash flooding is also likely in all three countries.

Innocent Pangapanga-Phiri, Justice Nyamangara, Mathews Mhuru, Marjolein Smit and Bruce M. Campbell

up to 0%

Decline in food crop production in various Southern African countries during the 2015/2016 El Niño

70–0%

Maize yield losses after dry spells of more than 21 days in Malawi and Zambia during the 2023–24 El Niño

Over 0 million

People affected by the dry spell in 84 out of the 117 Zambian districts

More than 0,000

Livestock deaths in southern Africa linked to the 2016 El Niño event

Rainfall and temperature forecasts

For Zimbabwe, most of the country is expected to be below-average in rainfall.

Across Southern Africa, temperatures are predicted to be higher than normal in the early growing season (October through to January).

Flash flooding is also likely in all three countries.

Building resilience through pre-season preparedness

  • Step up early El Niño messaging, particularly through radio and television, but also through public extension agents and agrodealers.
  • Early warning and early action: strengthening early warning systems for flash floods, including SMS and radio flood warnings.
  • To prepare for drought, build up stocks of drought tolerant seeds (e.g. small-grains in semi-arid areas of Zimbabwe and shorter season maize varieties in subhumid areas).
  • Use of practices that conserve moisture: no-till or reduced tillage; maintaining crop residues and mulching; organic amendments; and water harvesting methods.

Pangapanga-Phiri, I., Nyamangara, J., Mhuru, M., Smit, M., Campbell, BM. 2026. “Godzilla” El Niño on Its Way? Implications for Southern Africa. Policy Brief. Clim-Eat: Wageningen, the Netherlands.

Read the full policy brief
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